In the second quarter of 2018, banks issued 37% more loans in the amount over 500 thousand rubles compared to the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of credit histories (NBCH). The number of the smallest loans of up to 30 thousand rubles, on the contrary, decreased more than a third.
How many Russians are taking a loan?
Increased demand for large loans in the range of 300-500 thousand rubles banks in the second quarter gave such loans by 12.2% more than in the same period a year earlier. But small loans from 30 to 100 thousand roubles also began to take less, by 6.5%.
The decrease in the number of small loans was reflected in the total number of consumer loans, said NCB. In January — June, banks issued 7,08 million of unsecured consumer loans. This is 1.8% less than in the same period last year. But at the same time increased the total amount disbursed during the period loans — 25.3%, to 1.25 trillion rubles. “The growth of unsecured lending is happening not so much because increasing the number of credits by increasing their amount,” — says General Director nbki Alexander Vikulin.
Simultaneously, the Russians continue to increase the demand for credit cards and microloans. Thus, in the second quarter of 2018, banks issued 2.42 million new credit card — by 59.1% compared with the same period last year. Their use is beneficial not only for banks themselves to control credit risks through limit, but borrowers. “Thanks to favorable conditions as well as simplicity and ease of use,” explained in NBCH. The main advantage of credit cards remains a grace period during which the consumer can return the loan without interest. It differs depending on the specific Bank. The downside of credit cards is traditionally a high interest rate faced by the borrower, if you do not have time to return the money spent in the grace period.
But despite the increased rate of issuance of new credit cards, average limits on them are down for more than two years. This is true for borrowers of all ages. So for January — June 2018 in the age group 25 to 29 years, the average limit fell by 10.3% to just over 44 thousand rubles. The greatest average limits are in the age groups 30-39 years and 40-49 years is around 52 thousand and 53 thousand, respectively.
Total debt of the population to banks has reached a new high of 13.5 trillion roubles, follows from the monitoring of the economic situation in Russia prepared by experts of the Academy and Institute. E. T. Gaidar.
Prefer to spend, not to keep
“The increase in the average amount of consumer credit indicates a gradual transition of the population from savings to more consumer consumption patterns, including by making major purchases that were postponed after the crisis of 2015”, — said the expert of the Bank ratings of an ACRE Mikhail Doronkin.
The transition of the Russians to consumer behaviour told in his article for the monitor and senior researcher of the laboratory of structural research IPEA Ranhigs Michael Khromov. According to him, in 2018, the Russians receive from banks are much more loans than are their savings.
Adjusted for currency exchange rate Bank deposits for the five months of 2018 grew by only 330 billion rubles, or 1.3%. This is the lowest growth rate of savings in January — may from 2014.
At the same time, debts on loans grew by 883 billion rubles, or 7.1%. Thus, the difference between the growth of debt on loans and Deposit growth amounted to 553 billion rubles.
As said Mikhail Khromov, “acceleration of credit growth is a natural reaction for a population seeking to maintain a certain level of life in the context of stagnating revenues.”
“On the one hand, lending is a factor that stimulates and drives consumption. It supplements the recovery in real incomes and thus it gives impetus to economic growth,” said managing Director for analysis and chief economist, Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik. But he reminded about the risks to the solvency of the population, if loan growth outpaces increase in revenues. And the risks increase the more rate.
But now the growing interest of Russians to the credit expert explained just quick and significant decline in interest rates — as the key rate of the Central Bank and the market. Against this background, interest rates on deposits naturally fall, making them overall less attractive.
Recently, the Central Bank has identified risk allocation scheme for unsecured consumer credits mortgage. The Russians began to use large loans for the first contributions. This creates a double credit load on the family budget.
Analysts credit history Bureau “Equifax” estimated that in the second quarter of 2018, consumers could send almost 4.5 million loans for the first payment on the mortgage. The calculation was performed according to the algorithm, which was chosen all consumer loans (excluding car loans, credit cards and a loan for a specific product) with sum more than 100 thousand rubles. “Within three months after the date of receipt of consumer credit, the same customer received a mortgage loan in the same or another Bank”, — explained in the office.
Another scheme of “non-consumptive” spending of consumer loans, the Chairman of the Duma Committee on financial market Anatoly Aksakov described the use of loans for business development. This, according to him, even the more common mechanism.
Debt is greater than income
The ratio of debt to annual income of Russians has not yet reached a crisis of values, but surely them moving. At the end of 2014 this figure reached 25% by the end of may 2018, it was 23.9%, according to the monitoring the Academy and Institute. E. T. Gaidar. Mikhail Gromov explained that after 2014 the amount of debt to banks, the Russians declined, which led to the decline. Now loans again grow faster than revenues, which leads to growth.
Earlier, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina promised to prevent overheating in consumer lending. She stated that the growth rate of consumer should be comparable to the rate of increase of incomes of the population and rate of growth of loans to the real sector of the economy. According to Rosstat, in January — June, the incomes of Russians grew by 2.6% compared to the same period last year.
So from 1 September, the regulator plans to tighten the regulation of consumer credit, increasing the risk weighting on loans. But he did it in a softer format than originally planned.
Anatoly Aksakov believes that innovation will lead to an increase in interest rates will make banks harder to assess borrowers. One of the possible ways, according to him, could be the self-restraint of the Bank, if the lending rates are above average for the market. Mikhail Doronkin reminded about the plans of the Central Bank from October 2019 to require banks to mandatory calculation of the indicators of the debt burden of borrowers (PD) for all loans more than 10 thousand rubles.
“Now the banks increase the amount of provided loans primarily to borrowers with good credit history and high incomes”, — says in the NCB. Anatoly Aksakov also noted that large loans banks make more affluent sectors of the population that have already confirmed their trustworthiness. But because the risk of default or delinquency of the loan in this case is markedly reduced.
Yaroslav Lissovolik expects by the end of 2018 modest recovery with positive revenue growth at 1-2%, although we should not ignore the possible acceleration of inflation.